root@sleven:~$ ./why
S/EVEN is an intelligence layer over AI & technology prediction markets: model-driven fair values, divergence alerts, and the primary-source feeds behind them. Every number logged before the fact to an append-only ledger you can audit.
Open markets tracked
2,168
Fair values computed
162,442
Sources monitored
783
Media→market links
18,031
live counts at page render
Every fair value is written to an append-only calibration ledger before outcomes are known, then settled against real market resolutions — Brier-scored against the market itself. Nothing is edited after the fact. Nothing is cherry-picked.
884 fair values published and awaiting resolution. The track record accrues from live signal only; lower Brier than the market is the whole game.
/track — the public record →Fair-value computations — last 48 hours
Largest modeled divergences, shown with a 24h delay — live values are for members.
| Market | Market price | Our fair value | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model this month? — claude-opus-5-maxkalshi:KXTOPMODEL-26AUG10-CLAUM | 0.935 | 0.781 | -1541 bps |
| What will be the top AI model this month? — claude-opus-5-highkalshi:KXTOPMODEL-26AUG10-CLAU5 | 0.015 | 0.098 | +825 bps |
| What will be the top AI model this month? — claude-opus-5-maxkalshi:KXTOPMODEL-26AUG31-CLAUM | 0.755 | 0.683 | -722 bps |
| What will be the top AI model this month? — claude-opus-4-6-thinkingkalshi:KXTOPMODEL-26AUG10-CLAUT | 0.015 | 0.077 | +615 bps |
| What will be the top AI model this month? — claude-fable-5kalshi:KXTOPMODEL-26AUG31-CLAUF | 0.005 | 0.042 | +373 bps |
Every fair value is an ensemble of three in-house signal models — each component recorded per publication, so when we're wrong we can say which part was.
./PRIOR-1
Base-rate model
Settled-history persistence priors: how often does the incumbent hold? Laplace-smoothed from every resolution we've seen.
./FLOW-1
Market-structure model
Longshot-bias calibration, event-group normalization, and spread-aware thresholds over live order books on both exchanges.
./JUDGE-1
Event-judgment model
Structured AI judgment over primary-source snapshots — leaderboard states, filings, releases — cached, versioned, and logged per call.
Resolution feeds
The sources markets actually settle on, polled directly: benchmark leaderboards every 15 minutes, SEC EDGAR filing streams per company, official data releases.
Entity graph
Every market gets an extracted registry of the entities that decide it — auto-wired to scouted news feeds and verified official accounts.
Media linking
Incoming stories attach to the exact contracts they bear on within minutes — auto-linked with provenance, arbitrated when uncertain.
./free
$0
./prosumer
invite
./b2b
contact
$ curl https://api.sleven.ai/v1/fair-values \
-H "Authorization: Bearer sk_live_…"
{
"ticker": "KXTOPMODEL-26AUG10-CLAUM",
"pFair": 0.703, // our probability
"pMarket": 0.875, // what the market thinks
"edgeBps": -1719 // the disagreement
}